I see long-form podcast as the last line of defense against the fragility of today's socio-political discourse. We discuss the decline of elite education, Intellectual Dark Web, thought bubbles & more
Read More
Big Legislations are only as good as their PR blitz. Democrats are winning the PR battle on the $1.9T stimulus, unlike how they lost with ObamaCare. Also on the Right’s rhetoric, 2017 tax cut, & more.
Read More
Wisdom on monetary economics from John Cochrane, Milton Friedman, Keynes. Unlimited Bitcoin derivatives & substitutes could destroy its value in the long run, but price can still go up for decades.
Read More
Is mRNA an untested new tech that isn't safe? No. Media forces experts to reduce their nuanced thinking to 30sec clips. This reduces the quality of scientific discourse and makes experts more fragile.
Read More
SPACs provide an alternative for going public: you don't really need to be profitable and just need a famous promoter and a narrative that can convince people to believe in your vision...
Read More
and the Fed doesn't have another script prepared... Low yield is the foundation of today's boom, and when it's questioned, liquidity risks are exposed. The exit has become too difficult for the Fed...
Read More
Clubhouse is a worse-quality form of podcasting that gives more mindless people the chance to ramble and incurs huge opportunity costs for our public discourse & information acquisition...
Read More
My discussion w/ Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist: speculative bubbles always burst by definition; fundamentals reassert when prices too detached; dollar will crash 35% by 2021...
Read More
The Fed doesn't plan to tighten policy until 2023, but Yellen says we'll be back to pre-Covid employment level by end of 2021 if the $1.9tr package passes, which may force Fed to tighten earlier...
Read More
It is naive market liberalism to try to create a unified commodity money that would result in forever peaceful economic growth & fluid transactions. The gold standard failed; Bitcoin won't succeed...
Read More
A list of pro-Bitcoin arguments that changed my mind to believe its price will continue to go up. I don't think it will replace dollar or has any fundamentals, but these reasons can't hold it back...
Read More
Charts on the dramatic fall in interest rates, run up in debt, financialization, and rising inequality in the last 40 years...
Read More
The populists' logic is "as long as the people also get a share, then it’s all good." But just getting more people involved in the system won’t solve the problem – it just leads to a bigger crash...
Read More
The rise of Reddit traders will be a failed revolution, but not really b/c the establishment colluded against them. The mob leaders' unsubstantive criticisms are falling flat and rightfully so...
Read More
It is much harder for Citadel to pull off market manipulation than the public thinks, and much easier for Robinhood to have simply made stupid decisions. Irrational decision ≠ conspiracy/collusion...
Just like poor people buy fake Gucci belts to look rich, the elites now compete on moral grandstanding & virtue signaling to show they're the “real” elite…
Read More
Reddit "mob" literally guillotined a hedge fund. A rational investor should understand that assets today are bound to be greater than their fundamentals because of the narratives surrounding them...
Read More
Not trying to be rhetorical or facetious. I genuinely don’t have an answer to this question. If markets will go up no matter what, and bonds lost their hedging efficacy, why not go all in on stocks?
Read More
mRNA technology gives the same kind of antibody to 25 vs. 75-year-olds; new UK virus strain not more deadly and won't impact vaccine efficacy; recent suspension of Moderna vaccine in CA is no big deal
Read More
Income rose and poverty fell under CARES Act – the tried-and-true American safety net dating back to the New Deal is as effective as ever, and America has an incredible capacity for public good...