The irreversible dystopian path to chaos...

Based on the information we know so far, it seems that the ultimate occupation of the Capitol was not a pre-meditated, sophisticatedly organized operation, but an coincidental convergence of a series of unfortuante and inciting events beyond anyone’s prediction or control – what I would consider to be a “Black Swan” event.

Trump probably just hoped to conclude his presidency with a huge rally against the election result so that his base can remain enthusiastic for him to remain politically relevant. But it unfolded in a way that few could’ve predicted, beyond Trump’s control, and likely against his intention. It was perhaps the biggest “Black Swan” event during Trump’s presidency – one that would end up changing Trump’s legacy and the future of Republican Party forever more than Covid, BLM, or any of the other surprises 2020 gave us.

I don’t want to go down the rabbit holes of whether Trump is directly or partly responsible for the Capitol rush, or whether the event should be considered a shameful and coordinated coup or simply a protest gone wrong, or whether the tech platforms are justified to ban Trump…. The answers to these questions depend more on ideological standings these days than facts, and I don’t want to make any futile attempts trying to sway anyone’s ideology.

What is clear at this point, however, is that Trump’s political career is almost certainly over.

The dramatic, irreversible turn against Trump

Regardless if you believe that the Left has essentially controlled the media, tech, and social discourse nowadays, what transpired on 1/6 and in the subsequent days were quite extraordinary.

Briefly after the Capitol storm, the media had set the narrative as to the specific nature of the event as a whole. The narratives quickly zeroed in on the term “coup” as the benchmark interpretation of the event. A large number of political pundits and media outlets issued strong statements of condemnation before most political leaders or even President-Elect Biden’s team had a chance to react.

Last night on 1/8, Twitter suspended Trump’s account permanently, banning the single most important channel he communciates with the world and voices his opinions. Almost simultaneously, Google has pulled Parler, a conservative-backed social media app considered as a “free speech” alternative to Twitter and Facebook, from its app store for not taking stronger action to remove posts that seek “to incite ongoing violence” in the U.S., while Apple threatened the same treatment. It’s also not just Trump and Parler; a whole range of right-wing personalities (including Michael Flynn and Sydney Powell) and an entire ecosystem were banned in the matter of hours.

Recall the prospect for the Democratic Party right after the November election that most people forecasted:

  • Biden would likely struggle to enact his bold legislations without a Senate majority; the slimmest House majority in modern history threatened Pelosi’s speakership; the absense of “Blue Wave” cast doubts on the Party’s electoral competence, even after Trump’s major screw-up in Covid; the progressive and centrist Democrats were split in their vision on how liberal the party should become, both socially and fiscally…

  • On the other hand, the Republican Party was more united than ever behind Trump even after the loss, generously giving him the political backing to pursue legal challenges about the election result. With 74 millions votes and an unique ability to connect to his base, Trump was seen as an irreplacable force in conservative politics. He would be expected to campaign for the next four years, help Republicans win big in the 2022 midterms, and perhaps even run again in 2024 to reclaim the presidency…

Today, the power dynamic has completely reversed. House Democrats plan to introduce an article of impeachment against Trump on Monday. Investigations for mob violence and the involvment of Trump and his associates are underway – conspiracy, sedition, treason… everything’s on the table.

A number of high-ranking cabinet officials resigned. Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and even Lindsay Graham are no longer defending Trump.

Two grim options for the Republican Party

Trump has put himself in an un-defendable position for the Republican Party, who is now forced to abandon him but will still need Trump’s base for any electoral success in the future. Assuming that 2/3 of Trump’s 74 million voters in the 2020 general election have been disgusted by his recent actions, that’s still 25 million voters left loyal to him.

Trumpism is here to stay, and the Republican leadership is now forced with only two options:

  1. Gradually distance itself from Trump but maintain the official ties, and find someone else to take over his base.

  2. Get rid of Trump completely, which will force him to form his own political party and split up a majority of the Republican electorate.

The 1st option means the Republicans need to allow Trump to continue to appear on its official platforms (Fox News, CPAC, etc.). The 2nd option means an internal division that will let the Democrats win almost all elections for the foreseeable future…

Why can’t the Republican Party just get rid of Trump and return to the good old days of establishment politics? (i.e. Jeb Bush 2024?)

You simply can’t. Trump’s base has been politically activiated forever, and they finally feel heard. Trump has also done a lot of good for them through his pro-industrial, pro-agricultural, pro-Rust Belt policies, which made them realize the tangible benefits they could receive by taking advantage of their strong electoral sway.

He has also given credence to all the “free speech” advocates who are not a big fan of the current progressive cultural dogmatism that seems ubiquitous.

Most importantly, nobody can connect with the Trump base better than Trump. Pence? Pompeo? Josh Hawley? Nikki Haley? Ron DeSantis? Tom Cotton? Ted Cruz? None of them are quite there yet. Some of them could be viable candidates in 2024 conditional on being endorsed by Trump, but none of them can single-handedly pick up from where Trump left off. Without Trump, the Republican Party’s electoral advantage over the Democrats are gone.

Republicans had the upper hand in November, and now they’re risking an internal split-up. Trump is dragging the entire Party down with him, but the Party might crumble entirely without him.

It is the perfect moment for Pelosi to strike

Now that Trump is temporarily abandoned by his Party, the Democrats have finally gotten a chance to finish Trump off, for good. With Trump having less than two weeks in office, the impeachment proposal and the banning from media platforms are unlikely to result in actually substantive changes to the government itself per se, but these moves will be fatal to Trump’s political career and even personal security in retirement.

Pelosi has captured this narrow window of opportunity presented by this low-likelihood, black swan event to completely reverse the power dynamic and will likely dominate the Republican Party for years to come.

Going forward, every legislation, policy, and political move can be framed in relation to 1/6, and everything can be justified as “undoing the harm caused by Trump” – no matter how much truth there is to this claim.

It is partisan politics from here on, and political struggles are brutal. It is in Pelosi and the Democratic Party’s best interests to go after Trump and put him away for good, even though it may not be in the country’s best interest.

A dystopian future with a more extreme version of Trump

By stripping away Trump’s most basic channel to express opinions and communicate with his supporters via Twitter, we’re likely going down an irreversible path – a downward spiral of political persecution and partisan warfare leading to greater polarization between the American people, coupled with more anger and hatred from Trump’s 74-million-people base.

Tech companies will have more power and control over discourse and information without feeling the need to put forth consistent censorship policies, all justified under the guise of combatting Trumpism.

Likewise, for the media companies that have both caused and monetized the polarizing discourse, their most extreme criticisms of Trump are now ostensibly validated in one fell swoop. Instead of recognizing the biases and intellectual opportunity costs of narrative-driven journalism, we’ll simply say “oh of course they’ve been doing the right thing all along because look at what just happened on 1/6.”

If Trump is indeed put away for good, as most desire today, a more extreme version of him will likely arise in the near future – someone from the grassroots, preferably with a Rust Belt background and military experience, who will likely express more inflammatory and explicit commentaries on minorities, immigrants, and establishment politicians. This person will be more dangerous and effective than Trump in rallying up his base, “draining the swamp,” and “Making America Great Again.”

The 74 million voters will find their leader. As political commentator Michael Malice said, Trump is not the river; he’s the dam. Once you break the dam, all hell breaks loose.

Trump triggered exactly what his supporters feared, and our backlash against Trump will likely further spur what we hope to suppress…

Tiger GaoComment